“Mark Spitznagel made a fortune predicting the ‘black swan’ that hit markets last year. Now the relatively unknown hedge-fund manager is emerging from the shadow of his collaborator, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, with a big bet inflation will soar. The 38-year-old Mr. Spitznagel managed the Black Swan funds to triple-digit returns last year with a bet on volatility. The returns have brought a flood of cash, sending assets for his firm, Universa Investments LP, rising to $6 billion from $300 million … ‘Black swan’ alludes to the once-widespread belief that all swans are white — proved false when European explorers found black swans in Australia. A black-swan event is something extreme and highly unexpected. Mr. Spitznagel’s winning streak now will be tested.

Universa is poised to make a huge wager that will reap big rewards if inflation surges. Inflation is on investors’ radar thanks to extensive economic stimulus efforts … The new fund, expected to start trading in July, will place bets on options tied to assets expected to benefit from a big leap in prices, including commodities such as corn and crude oil, and options on shares of oil drillers and gold miners. It also will short Treasury bonds, likely to weaken in an inflationary economy … The inflation bet marks a change for Universa. Typically, Messrs. Spitznagel and Taleb don’t have an opinion about the near-term direction of the markets or economy. Rather, they argue, investors tend to underestimate the risks of major market swings. The latest wager is more of a directional bet that regulators’ efforts to prop up the financial sector and the broader economy will spark inflation.”

tradesbydee.blogspot.com

A Big Bet on Inflation. Can last year’s star manager repeat his success? is a post from: Top Business Opportunities

Is Louisiana the new Detroit? Look out Tesla Motors, there’s a new player in the eco-friendly car industry. V-Vehicles, founded in 2006 by former Oracle exec Frank Varasano and backed by activist billionaire T. Boone Pickens, announced plans to open its first factory in a former headlight plant in tiny Monroe, Louisiana. But that’s about all they announced. The company has been surprisingly tight-lipped about their business model, even declining to give details about the kind of car they intend to produce at the new factory.

What the Obama Plan Means for Business is a post from: Top Business Opportunities

NEW YORK (Fortune) — When it comes to stem cells, the public — and the media — tend to focus on embryos. But researchers and analysts say marketable therapies already are emerging from less controversial work with adult stem cells.

Adult cells make up the lion’s share of the stem cell space, mainly because they are easier to come by than embryonic cells, and less expensive to run in clinical trials. They are also derived from mature tissue, like bone marrow or umbilical cord blood, so they avoid the ethical debate that surrounds embryonic stem cells.

Researchers are far closer to commercializing drugs based on adult stem cells than any product based on embryonic stem cells.

“Adult derived cells are the ones that have been studied for the past 10 to 15 years and are ready for prime time,” says Debra Grega, the executive director of the Center for Stem Cell and Regenerative Medicine at Case Western Reserve University. “Large pharmaceutical companies are now wanting to get into the adult stem cell therapeutic area. That indicates to me that there is enough safety and enough efficacy that they are willing to put money in.”

The Investment Opportunities – The overall stem cell market, however, is still quite small. The California-based outfit Geron (GERN) dominates the embryonic market, and is perhaps 10 years away from commercializing a spinal cord treatment based on its research.

The frontrunner in the adult stem cell space is Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR). Last year, the biotech Genzyme (GENZ) paid Osiris $130 million up front, with another $1.2 billion to be paid in potential milestones, to develop two new adult stem cell treatments.

Osiris’s star drug Prochymal is used to fight graft-versus-host disease, a painful illness that can afflict transplant recipients. Osiris says the FDA could approve the drug within a year. If successful, Osiris would be the first company to win approval for a stem cell drug.

Other companies moving forward in the adult stem cell space include Stem Cells Inc., Cytori, and Aastrom Biosciences.

cnn.com

Adult stem cells are a promising market is a post from: Top Business Opportunities

A centerpiece of the plan is vesting the Federal Reserve with new powers over “systemic risk” in the economy with the aim of preventing future disasters like September’s collapse of former Wall Street giant Lehman Brothers and the taxpayer bailout of mega-insurer American International Group.

“My administration is proposing a sweeping overhaul of the financial regulatory system, a transformation on a scale not seen since the reforms that followed the Great Depression,” the president said in a speech at the White House.

Obama is walking a tightrope. He must avoid clamping down too hard on financial interests, stifling their role in driving growth in an economy that is trying to dig out of a recession.

“The administration’s proposal is so vast and controversial that it will be extremely difficult to enact and will produce great uncertainty in the financial markets,” said Edward Yingling, president of the American Bankers Association.

reuters.com

Obama urges biggest financial reforms since 1930s is a post from: Top Business Opportunities

TEL AVIV, June 17 (Reuters) – Alvarion Ltd. (ALVR.O), an Israeli maker of WiMAX and wireless broadband equipment, said on Wednesday it had won a 5-year, $100 million-plus contract from U.S. broadband wireless operator Open Range Communications Inc.

Alvarion (ALVR.TA) shares surged 11.8 percent to 15.48 shekels at the opening of the Tel Aviv market, compared with declines in the main indices.

The contract, to boost broadband access in rural areas, spans 17 states, 546 rural communities and would reach up to 6 million people, Alvarion said.

Through the network, Open Range plans to begin offering fourth generation (4G) services to un-served and undeserved customers across rural America in the fourth quarter of this year.

As part of the contract, Alvarion will provide radio access equipment, customer devices and systems integration for Open Range’s broadband wireless network.

Some of the attributes available through this “always on” wireless broadband network include: voice and data capabilities, WiFi for connectivity to existing PCs and secure network communication.

($1 = 3.93 shekels)

Alvarion wins $100 mln contract, shares surge is a post from: Top Business Opportunities

Bank of America Corp (BAC) — the largest U.S. bank — said its default rate, those loans the company does not expect to be paid back, soared to 12.50 percent in May from 10.47 percent in April.

The bank is paying the price of expanding rapidly in recent years and of holding one of the highest concentrations of subprime borrowers among the top card issuers, analysts said.

In addition, American Express Co (AXP.N), which accounts for nearly a quarter of credit and charge card sales volume in the United States, said its default rate rose to 10.4 percent from 9.90, according to a regulatory filing based on the performance of credit card loans that were securitized.

The credit card company also holds a large exposure in California and Florida, two of the states most affected by the housing crisis and unemployment.

Citigroup (C.N) — the largest issuer of MasterCard branded credit cards — reported credit card chargeoffs rose to 10.50 percent in May from 10.21 percent in April.

“Chargeoffs went up to record highs,” said Walter Todd, a portfolio manager at Greenwood Capital Associates, referring to the entire U.S. credit industry.

Credit card losses usually follow the trend of unemployment, which rose in May to a 26-year high of 9.4 percent and is expected to peak over 10 percent by the end of 2009.

If credit card losses across the industry surpass 10 percent this year, as analysts and bank executives expect, loan losses could top $70 billion.

tradesbydee.blogspot.com

U.S. credit card defaults rise to record in May is a post from: Top Business Opportunities

In just the past two weeks, the rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage has risen to 5.6 percent from 4.9 percent, ending a boom in refinancing and working against a budding recovery in the housing market. Rates on corporate borrowing have also risen, making it more expensive for companies to expand. And the government has been forced to pay more to finance its deficit.

“Households really have no capacity to afford higher rates at this point,” said Scott Anderson, a senior economist at Wells Fargo. “It affects the cost of any long-term borrowing a consumer or business might do, whether it’s auto loans, mortgages or business credit.”

So far, home-purchase activity has been relatively stable, according to a range of indicators. But if the higher mortgage rates persist, it could put a damper on a fragile housing market. Home sales have stabilized in the past few months, though at a very low level, spurred in part by lower rates.

washingtonpost.com

Spike in Interest Rates Could Choke Recovery is a post from: Top Business Opportunities